It’s June 2025, and if you’re a green coffee buyer or roaster trying to plan your next quarter, I’ve got three words for you: hold onto something.
I don’t mean figuratively — I mean grip the cupping table, clutch your import relationships, and if you’re still holding a little inventory from 2024, maybe give that bag of washed Colombia a hug. It might be the last thing with a stable cost of goods attached to it for a while.
The Current State: Coffee’s Wild West
Here’s what we’re looking at: volatility layered on volatility. Macro conditions — currency swings, freight hikes, and now looming Trump tariffs — have turned sourcing green coffee into something closer to a rodeo than a supply chain.
The C-market’s been bouncing like a pinball, with speculative activity hitting harder than that gummy you forgot you took at work.
Weather events?
You can plan a pretty picnic, but you can’t predict the weather, and let me tell you. It has been more erratic than my Uncle Dave trying to find his car in parking lot D after a face-melting Phish show. The El Niño hangover is still in play in Brazil, Colombia has production issues, and Central America’s labor shortages are getting worse.
And then, the T-word enters the chat.
Tariffs: The Incoming Storm Surge
There’s real talk and not real talk along with policy about increased U.S. tariffs on imported goods, including commodities. The ripple effects of new tariffs on Latin American African goods, and pretty much the rest of the world could send green coffee costs up by 10%–25 %, depending on origin, FOB structure, and how your importer rolls.
That’s not just a bump. That’s a margin-busting move. Careful now, there’s a boulder headed straight for your cost of production.
Roasters with razor-thin profit structures will feel it first, especially the smaller, independent shops that don’t have the cash flow to hold 6–9 months of contracted inventory.
Buyers will start looking harder at price vs. provenance—maybe that natural from Brazil doesn’t seem worth it when you could swap for a cheaper coffee from India and get a similar flavor profile for 20% less.
Some importers and roasters will try to buffer some of the impact on their customers, but don’t expect heroism. They are living it too. The days of extended terms and cozy margins are fading fast.
We are moving into a world where relationships and creativity will be the only things that keep your supply chain from snapping in half.
Let’s be blunt: specialty coffee has grown bloated and soft. It is what it is; let’s not front. For years, we over-indexed on ultra-exotics and experimental fermentation, forgetting that for most consumers, clarity and sweetness still outrank pink bubblegum anaerobic Ethiopias that cost $19/lb green. And now, with input costs going up and consumers becoming more cautious, the high-end luxury wave is breaking.
The next wave is already forming. I call it the “Intentional Middle.”
- Not commodity, not ultra-experimental.
- Not cheap, not exclusive.
- Coffees that are traceable, sustainable, flavorful, and replicable.
- Coffee where the supply chain works both ways — producers aren’t just names on your Instagram captions but co-authors of your products.
This means buyers and roasters must get sharper. It’s not about cupping the exotic lots anymore — it’s about sourcing a volume of quality coffee that holds up across roast curves, blends, and seasons without imploding your COGs.
Challenges Ahead for Roasters
Let’s not sugarcoat this. Roasters are about to walk into a trifecta of pain:
1. How High is the Waterfall, Ma?
The price of green coffee isn’t just going up — it’s climbing steadily, and it’s not coming back down anytime soon. That base cost increase is just the beginning. Stack on top of it a mix of economic and logistical punches: import tariffs, fluctuating freight rates, higher fuel costs, inflation across the board, and labor hikes at every level of the chain — and the true landed cost of coffee starts to paint a very different picture.
Take something as straightforward as a Guatemalan lot that costs $3.75/lb at origin. By the time it hits your roastery door — after shipping, unloading costs, import fees, warehousing, and everything else — you’re staring down a $5.50/lb green cost. And that’s before you even roast it.
Now you’ve got a choice. Either raise your prices and face pushback from a customer who’s already hesitant about paying $6 for a pour-over — or eat the margin and hope volume keeps you afloat. Neither option is great, and both come with risk.
This is where most coffee businesses hit a wall: not because they can’t source good coffee, but because they haven’t built a pricing model that reflects the real cost of doing business in today’s market.
There’s no easy fix — but ignoring the math isn’t a strategy. You either get smarter about your pricing, or you slowly bleed your margins dry.
2. Blend Integrity and Supply Chain Crisis
The global coffee landscape is unstable — full stop. Supply chains snap overnight, politics shift, ports clog, and one climate event can cause significant delays. If your roasting strategy relies on rigid protocols and single-origin dependencies, you’re gambling with your own business.
Coffee’s changing fast. If your program can’t flex, it’ll snap. Time to tighten the screws. Buckle up, buttercup.
3. Brand Fatigue
Transparency. Sustainability. Quality. It’s the industry’s default language now. But if you’re still relying on origin posters and varietal talk to prove you’re doing something special, you’ve already lost the room.
Today’s customer doesn’t need another washed Bourbon from Huehuetenango with a feel-good blurb about the farmer. They want a cup that rips — clean, sweet, and full-bodied — and they want to know that what they’re paying for is real.
The consumer isn’t buying your vibes. They’re buying taste, trust, and whether or not your coffee actually contributes to something that matters. So if you’re going to tell a story, it better be one they can feel. Not marketing fluff. Not vague mission statements. Tangible outcomes. Show them the impact — not just what you say you do, or pictures of you at origin, but what you can prove.
Because in the end, it’s not about how many producers you’ve met or how many varietals you can list. It’s about whether your coffee lands, and whether your work is building anything beyond the cup. Make the coffee excellent. Make the impact visible. That’s the story people want now.
My Advice for 2025 and Beyond
1. Get Back to Clean
Forget the trends. The real flex in roasting is sweetness, balance, and clarity. That’s what brings people back. Start with high-quality green coffee — coffees that are inherently sweet, clean, and structurally sound.
If you’re relying on aggressive roasts or novelty processes to make a coffee interesting, you’re compensating for weak raw material.
Yeah, funky coffees have their place. But when it comes to building trust and daily drinkers, nothing beats a well-executed washed lot that tastes like itself — not like the fermentation tank. Customers don’t want a science experiment at 7 a.m. They want something clean, comforting, and consistently excellent.
Build profiles that showcase what’s already in the bean — not what you can force onto it. That kind of restraint and control is what separates real roasters from the noise. Sweetness with depth wins. Consistency builds loyalty. Everything else is just a distraction.
2. Invest in Fewer but Deeper Relationships
Don’t just aim for transactional relationships with importers and producers; cultivate genuine connections. Identify two or three key partners and invest time in understanding their world beyond the coffee they trade. Schedule calls and engage in conversations that go beyond logistics and pricing. Inquire about their hobbies, their families, their favorite foods – the deeper your understanding of them as individuals, the stronger your professional bond will become.
Instead of a generic email requesting “15 bags of the washed lot” with an attached spec sheet, initiate a dialogue. Ask them about their current needs and challenges. Understand their role in the market and how you might be able to support their specific goals.
By demonstrating loyalty, a genuine interest in their success, and a willingness to participate in a solution-oriented relationship, you move from being a mere customer to a valued partner. This personalized approach fosters opens doors for collaboration and ultimately contributes to mutual growth.
3. Flexible Roasting Protocols
Build flexibility into the core of your blends.
Stop treating your house blend like it’s sacred scripture. Get over it. It’s not. It’s a system — and systems should bend, not break. That means designing with redundancy: foundational coffees that are stable, versatile, and easy to replace without wrecking your flavor profile.
Know your components. Map your flavors. Keep backup options vetted and ready. This isn’t just cupping for fun — it’s contingency planning. When a key origin drops out, you don’t panic. You pivot.
The roasters who win long-term aren’t the ones with the prettiest labels or the rarest coffees — they’re the ones who can adapt without compromising cup quality or production flow.
4. Empower Your Team and Engage Your Customers with Transparent Value Communication
Your employees are the front lines of your brand narrative. They interact daily with customers, embodying your company’s values and justifying the worth of your offerings. Equip them with a deep understanding of your product’s value proposition and pricing strategy.
If your team cannot articulate why your product is priced as it is, they will struggle to win customers, leading to lost sales and eroded trust. Make sure they are not just order takers but informed advocates who can confidently address customer inquiries about cost.
Ultimately, your customers are your most valuable investors. They are entrusting you with their money in exchange for a product or service they believe will provide value. If they don’t understand the rationale behind your pricing, especially if it’s higher than competitors’, they may perceive it as arbitrary or unfair.
This can lead to dissatisfaction, churn, and negative word-of-mouth. Proactively educate your customers about the factors influencing your pricing – the quality of materials, the expertise involved in development, the unique features offered, and the superior service provided.
Demonstrating the value they receive for their investment is crucial for building long-term loyalty and turning them into enthusiastic brand ambassadors. You are in a precarious position if neither your internal team nor your external stakeholders understand the reasons behind your pricing structure.
Open and consistent communication is paramount to ensuring everyone understands the value you provide and why it commands its price. Invest in educating both your team and your customers; the returns in terms of increased sales, customer satisfaction, and brand loyalty will be significant.
5. Know Your Numbers or Get Left Behind
If you’re still running your shop off gut instinct and good intentions, you’re not building you’re just surviving. Passion is great. But precision pays the bills.
You need to know your numbers — not just broadly, but surgically. They’re the engine behind every smart decision you make. Ignore them, and you’re flying blind.
Here’s what actually matters:
- Break-Even Point – Know exactly how much you need to sell to stop losing money. Recalculate often. Markets shift. Costs shift. Your awareness better keep up.
- Margins – Track your gross and net margins. Set targets. Stick to them. If the math isn’t working, neither is the business.
- Roast/Yield Loss – Every gram lost in the roaster or bag eats your margin. Log it. Improve it. Build your pricing with it baked in.
- COGS per SKU – If you don’t know exactly what each product costs to make, you have no idea what’s making you money and what’s bleeding you dry.
This isn’t bean-counting for fun. It’s survival.
Specialty coffee’s maturing. Customers are sharper. Competition is heavier. If you want to last, you can’t just make good coffee — you have to run a tight operation. That means pairing your passion with discipline and real-time financial awareness.
We’re shedding the skin of the old romantic narrative. This next wave is for the pros — the ones who track everything, optimize constantly, and make every dollar work as hard as every roast.
So yeah, keep loving the coffee and the mission. But back it up with numbers that let you grow it for the long haul.
Track it. Know it. Own it. Or get crushed.